Kogi politics

NAME: IBRAHIM ALI QUALIFICATION: B.Sc, M.Sc ( in view) PHONE: 07062171153 EMAIL: Ibrahimali4all@gmail.com Paper title: ASSESSING THE POLITICAL SITUATION OF KOGI STATE

Historically, kogi state was created by General Ibrahim Babagida on the 27th of August 1991 from part of Kwara state and Benue state. Geographically, it is one of the 36 states of the federal republic of Nigeria, which is located in the middle belt and the only state bordered by ten states. It borders Nasarawa state to the north east, Benue to the east, Enugu state to the southeast, Anambra state to the south, Ondo, Kwara and Ekiti state to the West and Niger state to the north. The state composes of languages such as Igala, Ebira, Okun, Bassa nge, Nupe, Idoma and Ogori magongo but Igala, Ebira and Okun are the populous language. With Igala having 52% of the total population and an estimated population of four million according to 2011 estimate, occupying 9 local government areas, Ebira having a total of two million people occupying 5 local government areas while the Okun have a total of 804,945 people according to 2011 estimated population occupying majorly yagba West and East. In total the state is made of three million, three hundred and fourteen thousand forty three people according to 2006 population census Economically, due to the state strategic location along trading routes, the people are into trading. Trading and agriculture remain the domain economic activity of the state, aside that, largest deposit of iron ore in Nigeria is found in the state. In an area called Ajaokuta. Politically, the state is currently governed by an All progressive congress (APC) led government of Yahaya Bello from the second largest population of the state (Ebira) and deputized by Edward Onoja, an Igala and a Christian from the first populous tribe of the state. Yahaya Bello came to power in 2015 and won reelection in November 2019 in an election that was marred with so many irregularities. Since his return to power the , state has been marred with different controversies ranging from lack of payment of workers’ salary, percentage payment of workers, court cases from Opposition over electoral malpractices and corruption allegations from civil society, individual and Opposition parties such as PDP, ADC and ADP. With 2023 around the corner the politics is hitting up between the tripod tribes over who will succeed Yahaya Bello in Lugard’s house. With the Yahaya Bello EBIGO Policy, of Ebira, Igala and Okun, The Okuns are agitating for power, the Ebiras wants to maintain power for16 years with chief of staff Asuku championing the course and Deputy governor Edward Onoja been a Christian and from the first populous tribe (Igala) desiring to replace Yahaya Bello come 2023 for the fact that Christian had never ruled the state since the 1999 .The crucial political situation of the state became that of identity politics. However, this is a survey research and such qualitative research methodology was used. Data was collected using interactive and none interactive technique of data collection. In the interactive technique instruments such as interview was conducted and recorded of 4 respondents of Kogi State residents. Respondents one: Comrade Ibrahim Adejoh ( lokoja based). Respondents 2: Gabriel Amen (Ofu LGA), respondents 3: iye Monday Apeh (woman leader ogugu 3, Olamaboro LGA) and Respondents 4: Yusuf Adai (Okene LGA). In none interactive technique instruments such as newspapers, online articles and journals were reviewed in order to understand the historical, concepts, political dynamics and current political situation of Kogi state. The data was analyzed using the transcript of the audio recordings of the respondents. The interview was used for coding every question, it was compared and analysis was done with other supporting documents. DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS This chapter contains responses of the respondents of kogi residents on the political situation of the state. Four respondents were interviewed and their responses were recorded and coded in according with the research questions. Some supporting documents were added to make clear a certain questions or concept for clearer understanding. PARTY IN POWER QUESTION 1: WHICH POLITICAL PARTY IS IN POWER IN KOGI STATE? Respondents1: Comrade Ibrahim Adejoh; All progressive Congress (APC) Respondents 2: Gabriel Ameh; All progressive Congress APC) Respondents 3: Iye Monday Apeh; APC Respondents 4: Yusuf Adai All progressive Congress (APC) From the above responses, all the four respondents responded that the party in power is (APC) All progressive Congress. By this, the study concluded that the party in power is All progressive Congress. According to Robert Dahl power is synonymous with politics and Harold Laswell buttresses the argument by saying that, politics is who get what, when and how. however, Getfell cited in (Mahajan, 2012:572) that party is a group of people who organized, act as a political unit and who by the use of other voting power aim to control government and carry out their general policy. Just as said above by Getfell All progress Congress were able to use their voting power in Kogi state to control the economy, the security apparatus, state institutions and decide which unit or individual or group get a certain allocation, certain infrastructure, certain appointment and certain projects when and how. APC led government in Kogi state has the influence in the state to command any institutions under its jurisdiction to follow. All progressive Congress (APC) is the political party in power, controlling all the state institutions and resources. It came to power in on 2015 and won reelection on November 2019 with total votes of 200, 000 votes to defeat People Democratic party (PDP) in an election that was marred with electoral malpractices. QUESTION 2: WHAT IS ALL PROGRESSIVE CONGRESS’ (APC) STRENGTH? Respondents 1: Comrade Ibrahim Adejoh; power of incumbency, state resources Respondents 2: Gabriel Ameh; Money, INEC Police, Ebira people unity forum Respondents 3: iye Monday Apeh religion, ethnic, Elites, kogi money, Inec Respondents 4: Yusuf Adai; state institutions, few projects, INEC, state allocation and policy. Three of the respondents responded that the party strength is power of incumbency that is to say; He who controls the state controls the state institutions and decides their actions. The use of power of incumbency and state machinery is the new law of Nigerian politics, Office holders make use of all the available weapons at their disposal to suppress Opposition and win elections. (Okezie, 2018:133) While all the four respondents responded that the party strength is the state resources. The use of money is now a crucial and most potent factor in Nigeria politics, money bag politics as practice in Nigeria. Anybody who has money to bribe electorates or electoral officials is likely to win an election. Elective post always goes to the highest bidder. (okezie, 2018:133).. WEAKNESSES OF ALL PROGRESSIVE CONGRESS Question 3: what do you think are the Weaknesses of APC as the party in power? Respondents1: Comrade Ibrahim Adejoh; likely division within APC over party leadership and who will succeed Yahaya Bello as governor, identity politics, corruptions and poor infrastructure Respondents 2: Gabriel Ameh; poor state of state infrastructure, roads, water, street lights, lack of implementation of minimum wage, percentage payment of workers salary, division over who will succeed Yahaya Bello. Respondents 3: Iye Monday Apeh; half payment of salary, delay payment of salary and if you talk them go come pick you from your house. Ebira wants power, okun wants power and Edward want to continue after Yahaya Bello Respondents 4: Yusuf Adai; corruption, percentage payment of salary, division of the party between Ebira, Igala and Okun over who will succeed Yahaya Bello as governor of the state, the party has become unpopular due to actions of Yahaya Bello as a governor. If you criticize his policy or government you will be attacked. Four of the respondents agreed that the party in power is unpopular due to percentage payment of salary, lack of implementation of minimum wage, lack of payment of salary in line with their responses the State Chairman, Nigerian Union of Teachers, NUT, Comrade Thomas Ayodele, decried the welfare of its members, saying all is not well with teachers in the state. “Permit me to further draw the attention of the state government to the fact that primary school teachers like their counterparts in the state civil service, are entitled to 100% salary payment. Comrade Ayodele noted. (www.vanguardngr.com. similarly, The Trade Union Congress, State Chairman of TUC, Comrade Ronti Ojo (TUC) has condemned the non-implementation of the N30, 000 new minimum wages by the Kogi State Government. Primary school teachers and local government workers still receive percentage salaries. One of the workers who complained bitterly on phone, said she received N16, 000 instead of N45,000 basic salary she ought to be paid as a Level 7 LG worker. A teacher, who also spoke in confidence, said she had tried to start a business to supplement the dwindling uncertain salary package, but access to capital was a hurdle for her to cross. (www.vanguardngr.com/2020/02/minimum-wage-kogi-workers-to-get-better-deal-⁠-nlc-chairman/). Another weakness which the respondents responded was identity politics. Four of the respondent responded that there is Silent division in the party over leadership and who will succeed Yahaya Bello at Lugard house. This mean identity politics with the Ebira desiring to retain power, the deputy governor, a Christian from the first populous tribe Igala desiring to replace his boss and the Okun in dear need of power for the first time in the history of the state. This is an identity politics. Identity politics is the base of contestation for inclusion in the opportunities and rights available to others in the electoral process. Many of these contestations resulted into electoral violence (Sesan, 2018:293). These will serves as a base to weaken APC as a party, as their focus will be on their ethnic rather than party interest and state interest. Igala, Ebira and Okun will put their ethnic first. In line with the responses of the respondents an online article posited that, The controversy over power rotation has become a quadrennial ritual during election season in Kogi State based on the tripod; Ebira, Igala and Okun tribes Meanwhile, the Okun Development Association (ODA) had during the celebration of the 30 years anniversary of creation of the state, demanded the governorship ticket for the Kogi West. The President General, Okun Development Association, Femi Mokikan, while addressing journalists recently in Lokoja, explained that the Okun people are the most marginalised major ethnic group in the state in the area of employment, (www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2021/10/10/endless-intrigues-over-power-rotation-in-kogi-30-years-after-creation/ ). Another weakness which the four respondent hinted is Corruption. According to stapenhurst ( 2018:5) cited in Mahmoud and etal (2018:5) corruption is the abuse of power most often for personal gain or fir the benefits of a group to which one owes allegiance. Ref bayero journal of political science(2014) maiden edition, department of political science, Kano. They all said that the government of the Yahaya Bello APC led is corrupt, all the state money collected no tangible structure on ground and the workers were short paid. In line with their Reponses civil society organization and some key personality within the state have exposed how corrupt the government of Yahaya Bello is. The People Democratic Party (PDP) has called on the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) to immediately commence investigation on Kogi State Governor, Yahaya Bello, over revelations of laundering billions of Naira made by a civil society group, the Anti- Corruption Network. Similarly, Progressives Mandate Movement (PMM) A group of Civil Society Organisations in Kogi State, has called on the anti- graft agencies to investigate the Governor for financial crimes against the people of the State. In a statement, the PMM Chairman, Comrade Musa Enejo Stephens, on Thursday in Lokoja, urged the EFCC to hasten investigation into alleged financial mismanagement in the confluence state perpetrated under the watchful supervision of the governor. thewhistler.ng/civil-society-groups-pdp-others-want-yahaya-bello-prosecuted-over-alleged-diversion-of-n300-billion QUESTION 2: DO YOU HAVE OPPOSITION PARTIES OR PARTY IN THE STATE? An Opposition is an individual or group of people who always attacks the activities or actions of other groups or of a political party or an organized group who always attacks the actions of a party in power. Respondents 1: Comrade Ibrahim Adejoh; Yes PDP and ADP, ADC Respondents 2: Gabriel Ameh; Yes PDP and ADC Respondents 3: IYE Monday Apeh Yes, PDP, ADC and APGA Respondents 4: Yusuf Adai, ADP, PDP , ADC All the respondents agreed that there are Opposition parties, all four respondents agreed that PDP is the most active Opposition while others are silent in the state with ADC and ADP playing hide and seek Opposition in line the respondent’s responses an online newspaper saharareporter, reported PDP criticism on the APC led government of Yahaya Bello by saying that; PDP Slams Yahaya Bello that Kogi is backward due to the “much devastation, infrastructural decay, poverty and institutionalized hopelessness” under which the people live. The PDP National Publicity Secretary, Kola Ologbondiyan, stated this during a tour of the PDP offices in the state at the weekend. He lamented that Bello had “stagnated and turned Kogi into the most backward state in the country.” (saharareporters.com/2021/07/25/why-kogi-nigeria’s-most-backward-state-–-pdp-slams-yahaya-bello). In line with PDP, another opposition party ADC has been in the four front of opposing the APC led Government of Yahaya Bello, the opposition party have hit out at the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), accusing the agency of politicizing anti-corruption efforts and allegedly ‘intimidating some politicians within and outside the All Progressives Congress (APC). (www.sunnewsonline.com/kogi-opposition-parties-accuse-efcc-of-politicising-anti-corruption-war) QUESTION 5: WHAT IS THE STRENGTH OF THE OPPOSITION PARTIES OR PARTY IN THE STATE? Respondents 1: Comrade Ibrahim Adejoh candidate likely to come from majority tribe, (Igala), they politically formidable, Weaknesses of APC, financial power, Powerful ex-governor Respondents 2: Gabriel Ameh, Powerful APC members decamping to APC, division of APC, leadership crisis in APC, failure of APC towards workers. Respondents 3: iye Monday Apeh: None payment of salary of workerd, PDP candidates in 2023. Miss wada constant criticism on the government. Respondents 4: Yusuf Adai: mismanagement of state resources and lack of infrastructure will be an avenue for strengthening PDP, popular in kogi east and west. Four of the respondents viewed that the strength of the opposition party is the weaknesses of the party in power, that is; identity politics over who will be the party flag bearer will weaken the party and make some key party members to decamp to PDP to strengthen it. Four of the respondents responded that, the kogi electorates will be sympathy towards the PDP and the inability of the APC government to provide infrastructure to the state. PDP is popular in Kogi east the tribe that have 52 percent of the population and hug percentage in kogi west. The respondents also perceived powerful former governors as strength of the Party. QUESTION: WHAT IS THE LIKELY WEAKNESSES OF THE OPPOSITION PARTIES OR PARTY Respondents 1: Comrade Ibrahim Adejoh; it is an Opposition party, it doesn't know how to be an Opposition, financial capacity, lack power of the state Respondents 2: Gabriel Ameh, just like the national, it's not united, it is weak financially compared to party in power. Respondents 3: Iye Monday Apeh. Lack power of incumbency, may noy have enough resources to stand the party in power, unpopular in kogi central. Respondents 4: Yusuf Adai. May have shortage of money, not that influential in kogi central Four of the respondents, responded that, it may not have enough money to match the incumbent party which has the state resources at its disposal. That is to say the ruling party will use state money to buy its way back to power by buying votes, bribing the institutions of the state such as KOSIEC ( Kogi state independent electoral commission) the police and other security apparatus. Four of the respondent also responded that, the party major weakness was that it wasn’t in power which means power of incumbency is likely to be used against it during election to suppress its popularity within any senatorial zones of the state. Other response by respondent was that the opposition party, PDP doesn’t know how to be an opposition meaning that they are not doing enough in opposing the party in power; they are not making the people feel the impact of opposition in the state. QUESTION 5: IS THERE OPPORTUNITY FOR A THIRD FORCE OR A COALITION PARTY LIKE APC IN THE STATE? Respondents 1: Comrade Ibrahim Adejoh, yes but when there is Money, when Powerful APC or PDP candidates were denied tickets Respondents 2: Gabriel Ameh, yes, if the crisis in APC and PDP Respondents 3: Iye Monday Apeh: if there's Money and the people are rather to win. Respondents 4: Yusuf Adai; it is difficult because of the money involved, the time to market the new force or party. All the four respondents responded that, they will be third force if the identity politics in APC denied some key member’s tickets and the capital requirements are available. All the four respondents responded that, the third force will struggle because of the resources to market the party and the individual which required hug sum of money which might not be available. This will be the major hurdle the new force is like to face MAJOR PLAYERS QUESTION: WHO ARE THE MAJOR PLAYERS IN THE STATE? Respondents 1: Comrade Ibrahim Adejoh; the major players in the state are many but key ones are; governor Yahaya Bello, Edward Onoja, Jamiu Abdulkreem Asuku Former senator Dino Melaye Smart Adeyemi, Achuba Simon, Ibrahim Idris, Musa wada, Idris Wada, and the two party chairmen. Respondents 2: Gabriel Ameh, Hon. Adeku (whisky) decamping to PDP, unary adeyemi, Dr, Philip salary omeza, Yahaya Bello, Edward Onoja, Jamiu Abdulkreem Asuku Former senator Dino Melaye Smart Adeyemi, Achuba Simon, Ibrahim Idris, Musa wada, Idris Wada, Prince Dayo, Akanmode, Dr Williams Toying Akande. Respondents 3: Iye Monday Apeh; governor Yahaya Bello, Edward Onoja, Jamiu Abdulkreem Asuku, Former, senator Dino Melaye, Smart Adeyemi, Achuba Simon, Ibrahim Idris, Musa Wada, Idris Wada, party chairmen. Respondents 4: Yusuf Adai; Governor Yahaya Bello, Edward Onoja, Jamiu Abdulkreem Asuku, Former senator Dino Melaye, Smart Adeyemi, Achuba Simon, Ibrahim Idris, Musa Wada, Idris Wada, party chairmen. All the four respondents, responded that, the major players are much but mentioned names such as; Governor Yahaya Bello, Edward Onoja, Jamiu Abdulkreem Asuku Former senator Dino Melaye Smart Adeyemi, Achuba Simon, Ibrahim Idris, Musa wada, Idris Wada, and the two party chairmen. However, the table below shows the profile of key personalities in the state. TABLE SHOWING KEY PLAYERS OF CURRENT KOGI POLITICS PersonalityProfilePartyConstituencyIdentityYahaya Bello Was born in Okene, Kogi State, in June 18, 1975. The youngest of six children. is a Nigerian politician, businessman, and the current Governor of Kogi State. He attended Local Government Education Authority (Nigeria) (LGEA) Primary School, Agassa in Okene LGA beginning in 1984. Bello studied at Kaduna State Polytechnic Zaria in 1995 and obtained an accounting degree from Ahmadu Bello University ABU Zaria in 1999. Yahaya Bello further enrolled for a Master’s program in Ahmadu Bello University in Zaria where he obtained Masters in Business Administration ( MBA) in 2002. Bello became a chartered fellow of the Association of National Accountants of Nigeria in 2004. Bello was declared winner of the 2015 Kogi gubernatorial election after he was chosen on the platform of the All Progressives Congress as the replacement for the late Abubakar Audu who originally won the election but died before the result was declared. On 16 November 2019, Bello was elected to a second term after he defeated PDP nominee Musa Wada by over 200,000 votes. APC. Kogi central senatorial zoneEbira Edward OnojaThe Deputy Governor of Kogi State, Nigeria. Hails from Odidoko- Emonyoku in Ogugu District of Olamaboro Local Government Area of Kogi State. He was the Chief of Staff to the Governor of Kogi State before assuming the office of the Deputy Governor of Kogi State on 21 October 2019 following the impeachment of the Deputy Governor Simon Achuba by the Kogi State House of Assembly. Before being elected as the Deputy Governor in the 16 November 2019 general elections, . APCKogi eastIgalaYakubu OseniYakubu Oseni (born 1975) is a Nigerian politician and a Senator of the Federal Republic of Nigeria for Kogi Central Senatorial District of Kogi State Nigeria. He was elected in the February 2019 Nigerian general elections under the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC). After securing a total votes of 76,120 He was the Executive Chairman of the Kogi State Internal Revenue Service (2016-2018) appointed by Governor of Kogi State Yahaya Bello.APCKogi centralEbiraSmart AdeyemiSmart Adeyemi was born 18 August 1960 at Iyara in Ijumu Local Government Area of Kogi State was elected Senator for the Kogi West constituency of Kogi State, Nigeria. Reelected as senator for the third time on the 30th of November 2019 He earned a post-graduate diploma in Public Relations, diploma in Law, advanced diploma in Mass Communication, and master's in Public Administration from the Federal University of Technology Owerri, and became a journalist. He was National President of the Nigerian Union of Journalists from 1999 to 2006. On assuming his Senate seat he was appointed to committees on Privatization, Industry, Federal Character & Inter-Government Affairs (Chairman), Federal Capital Territory and Appropriation. He was also appointed vice chairman of the Northern Senators Forum. Smart Adeyemi defeated Senator Dino Melaye in a of margin of over 20,00APCKogi westOkunDino melaye Melaye was in born 1 January 1974 in Dino Melaye was born in Kano State, Nigeria. He attended Abdulaziz Attah Memorial College, Okene for his secondary school education. He graduated from Ahmadu Bello University , Zaria where he studied geography in 2000 He is a Nigerian politician, a former Senator and was a member of the 8th Nigerian National Assembly, representing Kogi West Senatorial district. He is from Ayetoro Gbede in Ijumu Local Government Area of Kogi State. He was the Chairman Senate Committee on Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Abuja. And briefly the Senate Committee Chairman on Aviation in Nigeria. He led the National Association of Nigerian Students (NANS) and later became the Secretary-General of African Youth Council and then that of the Commonwealth Youth Council. He was appointed by President Olusegun Obasanjo to chair the Presidential Advisory Council on Youths. In 2015, he decamped to the People's Democratic Party where he was re-elected as a member of the House of Representatives representing Kabba/Ijumu federal constituency. And In the 2015 Senatorial election he was elected a member of the Senate of Nigeria from the Kogi-West. Dino Melaye sponsored about 20 bills and moved over 30 motions in the 8th national assembly. One of such bills is "A Bill for an Act to provide for the Establishment of a Federal University of Agriculture, Kabba. PDPKog west okunJamiu abdulkreem AsukuBorn January 2nd 1980. D.G. Of Protocol, Kogi State Government. By Yahaya AbdulMutoleeb was appointed in February, 2016 as the Director General, Protocol. Government House, Lokoja by His Excellency, Alh. Yahaya Adoza Bello. Abdulkareem Asuku Went to Abdul Aziz Atta Memorial College Okene (AAMCO), he proceed to Study Pharmaceutical science at Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria. He was the Head of Pharmacy Department at Maritime Academy of Nigeria, Oron, Akwa Ibom State. Until he was appointed as the Director General, Protocol to Kogi State Government at Government House Lokoja Kogi state. He embarked on a free jamb registration program for students in Kogi Central. Over 100 beneficiaries across the five local governments in Kogi Central benefitted in last couple of years. APCKogi centralEbiraIsaac alphaIsaac Mohammed Alfa was born 15 September 1950 in Inye, Kogi State , Nigeria ) is a retired Nigerian Air Force Air Marshal , former Chief of Air Staff and Senator from Kogi State. In 2003 he contested the governorship of Kogi State. In July 2016, he was elected to the Senate of Nigeria , for the Nigerian National Assembly delegation from Kogi . APCKogi eastIgalaIbrahim IdrisIbrahim Idris was born in 1949 at Idah town, Idah Local Government Area of Kogi State. He started his primary education in 1954 in Onitsha, Anambra State. In 1962, he moved to Kano, where he completed his primary education in 1963. He moved to Buguma in Rivers State where he enrolled in King's Commercial College in 1964. He holds a bachelor's degree from University of Abuja He is a Nigeria businessman who was elected Governor of Kogi State in Nigeria in April 2003, and reelected in April 2007. Deputy Philip Salawu Preceded by Abubakar Audu Succeeded by Clarence Olafemi Personal details Born 1949 Idah Local Government Area Nationality Nigerian Political party People's Democratic Party PDPKogi eastigalaIdris wadaIdris Ichala Wada was born August 26, 1950. He is a Nigerian retired pilot and politician. On December 9, 2011, he was elected as the 3rd Governor of Kogi State under the platform of People's Democratic Party. PDPKogi eastIgala QUESTIONS WHICH GROUPS OR CIVIL SOCIETY ORGANISATIONS ARE MAJORLY ACTIVE IN THE POLITICS OF THE STATE? Respondents 1: Comrade Ibrahim Adejoh ACN, HRCN, KOGI NMA, PMM, NLC, NUT, ASUSS, PAC,EMA, AFAN Respondents 2: Gabriel Ameh. Party chairman, right activities Deji Adeyemi, Ebira descendants Union, APOPO PMM,CAN, AFAN Respondents 3: Iye Monday Apeh, NLC, NUT , LGA workers, ODA, CAN, EMA Respondents 4: Yusuf Adai, TUC, AFAN, ASUSS, Omo yagba Peace association. ACN, EMA, PMM According to CSO is composed of voluntary, civil and social organization and institutions that form the state and commercial institutions. How ever.. this are not engage in any state activities..they includes professional association, students bodies, media , trade unions, labour Union, cultural or ethnic groups (Nura iro ma aji, 2018:75). All the respondent agreed that CSOs were active in the state some of the most active civil societies in the responses of the respondents are CAN, PMM, EMA, AFAN, NLC, NUT, TUC and Okun development association (ODA). According to them the CSOs can drive change agenda, in line with the responses of the respondent’s saharareporter, vanguardnews, dailysunny and dailynews.com reported the activities of civil society organization such as Anti Corruption Network (ACN) ANTI-CORRUPTION NETWORK February 2021, the Anti-Corruption Network, a Kogi-based group that had accused Bello of corruption several previous times, released a new report accusing Bello of Laundering billions of naira in public funds; the organization then filed a EFCC petition against the governor on 1 March. The report detailed various forms of accused corruption in the 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 Kogi State Government Expenditures, including (but not limited to) awarding state contracts to non-legal persons, irregularities in awarding contracts, conflicts of interest in awarding contracts, awarding contracts without due process, and money laundering. (EMA) ACTION AND EGALITARIAN MISSION FOR AFRICA In 2016 (EMA) Action and Egalitarian Mission for Africa accused Bello of corruption Kogi in Action and Egalitarian Mission for Africa claimed to have sent information to the EFCC on alleged “fictitious withdrawals and evidence of contracts inflation by the Bello administration in 2016. Kogi in Action spokesman Majeed Abdullahi said that “EMA furnished the EFCC with details of executive recklessness on the part of the governor and his agents and expressed concern over the agency's alleged inaction. ALL FARMERS ASSOCIATION OF NIGERIA (AFAN) The coordinator of the All farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN) Babaniyi Asorose, a farmer said that, Lokoja seed and fertilizer distribution was discontinued the day after federal Minister of Agriculture Sabo Nanono opened the Kogi State distribution. He revealed this after investigation by the Premium Times showed over ₦2.6 billion was allocated for agriculture-related COVID mitigation programs, however, interviewed farmers claimed that no assistance was offered to them by the state government. PROGRESSIVES MANDATE MOVEMENT (PMM) A group of Civil Society Organizations in Kogi State, Progressives Mandate Movement (PMM) in has called on the anti- graft agencies to investigate the Governor for financial crimes against the people of the State. In a statement, the PMM Chairman, Comrade Musa Enejo Stephens, on Thursday in Lokoja, urged the EFCC to hasten investigation into alleged financial mismanagement in the confluence state perpetrated under the watchful supervision of the governor. ANALYSIS This section will deal with explanation of the data presented above of the respondents and other supporting documents. PARTY IN POWER AND STRENGTH The party in power in kogi state as of 2021 is (APC) All progressive Congress. All progress Congress were able to use their voting power in Kogi state to control the economy, the security apparatus, state institutions and decide which unit or individual or group get a certain allocation, certain infrastructure, certain appointment and certain projects when and how. APC led government in Kogi state has the influence in the state to command any institutions under its jurisdiction to follow. All progressive Congress (APC) is the political party in power, controlling all the state institutions and resources. It came to power in on 2015 and won reelection on November 2019 with total votes of 200, 000 votes to defeat People Democratic Party (PDP) However, the party strength is power of incumbency and state resources. That is to say; He who controls the state controls the state institutions and decides their actions. That is to say the APC led government despite performing poorly in the Lugard house is likely to use power of incumbency as it has done in the 2019 election to return to power by suppressing opposition party, buying electoral officials, using state apparatus of force to rig and buy its way back to power, The use of power of incumbency and state machinery is the new law of Nigerian politics, Office holders make use of all the available weapons at their disposal to suppress Opposition and win elections. (Okezie, 2018:133) Strength of the party is the state resources. The APC led government of Yahaya Bello will use the state resources to maintain power for APC come 2023 despite performing poorly. Using the state resources electoral officials will be bought, electorates will be bought, force apparatus will be bought and election will be won by APC government. The use of money is now a crucial and most potent factor in Nigeria politics, money bag politics as practice in Nigeria. Anybody who has money to bribe electorates or electoral officials is likely to win an election. Elective post always goes to the highest bidder. (okezie, 2018:133). WEAKNESSES OF ALL PROGRESSIVE CONGRESS The weaknesses of the party is much, the party is highly unpopular in the civil services state, kogi is a civil servant state and the government of Yahaya Bello APC led is paying percentage salary, owing salaries of civil servants and has failed to implement minimum wage in the state. These civil servant and their families are facing bad condition in the state and there are the highest group of electorates, their cries will be passed down to their children which will discourage them from voting for the APC and turning to the alternative opposition party PDP. Four of the respondents agreed that the party in power is unpopular due to percentage payment of salary, lack of implementation of minimum wage, lack of payment of salary in line with their responses the State Chairman, Nigerian Union of Teachers, NUT, Comrade Thomas Ayodele, decried the welfare of its members, saying all is not well with teachers in the state. “Permit me to further draw the attention of the state government to the fact that primary school teachers like their counterparts in the state civil service, are entitled to 100% salary payment. Comrade Ayodele noted. (www.vanguardngr.com) in support of NUT Chairman, State Chairman of TUC, Comrade Ronti Ojo made the position of the union known in Lokoja and lamented that the poor living conditions of workers in the state (dailypost.ng) Another weakness which the respondents responded was identity politics. Four of the respondent responded that there is Silent division in the party over leadership and who will succeed Yahaya Bello at Lugard house. This mean identity politics with the Ebira desiring to retain power, the deputy governor, a Christian from the first populous tribe Igala desiring to replace his boss and the Okun in dear need of power for the first time in the history of the state. This is an identity politics. However, the center of the political hit in the state is identity politics, the three major tribes are in dear need of power. The Ebira majorly desiring power because they have not held to power since the creation of the state and with their boy as the head of APC incumbent, they desire to hold power for another eight years since the Igalas has held power for the past 20 years un abated the champion of theses course from the respondent response is Chief of staff to Yahaya Bello, Jamiu Abdukareem Asuku leading the raced for an Ebira tribe to replace Yahaya Bello. In the word of Smart Adeyemi in a dailytrust, Jamiu Asuku is desperately working to replace Yahaya Bello. The Igalas been the tribe with the highest population and 52 percent of the state population desiring power in 2023, the major strength of the deputy governor who is leading the course is that since the creation of the state a Christian has never ruled the state as a governor, the Christians from the Ebira side, Okun side and Igals side are like to give him sympathy votes in the primary and at the gubernatorial elections. The deputy governor has been playing underground religious politics by organizing different mega church programs in the state. With the EBIGO policy of Yahaya Bello, the Okun are agitating for power come 2023, their argument is that since the inception of the state, the Okun had never ruled the state in the capacity of governor and therefore desire to be governor, according to them Yahaya Bello must keep the promise made to them come to 2023. This will be carcass that will be breaking the APC apart come 2023, the Ebira, Igalas and the Okun will be in real confrontation. The chief of staff and the deputy are already in silent war over their ambitions. A key respondent who pleaded unanimous viewed that, Yahaya Bello is likely to use the state resource and power of incumbency to maintain power for the Ebiras by playing an Ebira to become the party flag bearer come 2023. And that all the state resources he is amassing was for the purpose of making sure power is retained by the Ebiras. All these agitation is coming from the party. Identity politics is the base of contestation for inclusion in the opportunities and rights available to others in the electoral process. Many of these contestations resulted into electoral violence (Sesan, 2018:293). These will serves as a base to weaken APC as a party, as their focus will be on their ethnic rather than party interest and state interest. Igala, Ebira and Okun will put their ethnic first. In line with the responses of the respondents an online article posited that, The controversy over power rotation has become a quadrennial ritual during election season in Kogi State based on the tripod; Ebira, Igala and Okun tribes Another weakness which the four respondents hinted is Corruption. Corruption is the abuse of power most often for personal gain or fir the benefits of a group to which one owes allegiance stapenhurst (2018) cited in (Mahmoud, 2018:5) They all said that the government of the APC led Yahaya Bello is corrupt, all the state money collected no tangible structure on ground and the workers were short paid. In line with their Reponses civil society organization and some key personality within the state have exposed how corrupt the government of Yahaya Bello is. With the rise in consciousness of Nigerian on corruption, this is like to be a threat to the party in power; several sources have reported the corrupted nature of the sitting governor of kogi state. The People Democratic Party (PDP) has called on the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) to immediately commence investigation on Kogi State Governor, Yahaya Bello, over revelations of laundering billions of Naira made by a civil society group, the Anti- Corruption Network. Progressives Mandate Movement (PMM) A group of Civil Society Organisations in Kogi State, Progressives Mandate Movement (PMM) has called on the anti- graft agencies to investigate the Governor for financial crimes against the people of the State. In a statement, the PMM Chairman, Comrade Musa Enejo Stephens, on Thursday in Lokoja, urged the EFCC to hasten investigation into alleged financial mismanagement in the confluence state perpetrated under the watchful supervision of the governor. QUESTION 2: DO YOU HAVE OPPOSITION PARTIES OR PARTY IN THE STATE? An Opposition is an individual or group of people who always attacks the activities or actions of other groups or of a political party or an organized group who always attacks the actions of a party in power. All the respondents agreed that there is an Opposition parties, all four respondents agreed that PDP is the most active Opposition while others are silent in the state with ADC and ADP playing hide and seek Opposition in line the respondent’s responses an online newspaper saharareporter, reported PDP criticism on the APC led government of Yahaya Bello by saying that; PDP Slams Yahaya Bello that Kogi is backward due to the much devastation, infrastructural decay, poverty and institutionalized hopelessness under which the people live. In line with PDP, another opposition party ADC has been in the four front of opposing the APC led Government of Yahaya Bello, the opposition party have hit out at the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), accusing the agency of politicizing anti-corruption efforts and allegedly intimidating some politicians within and outside the All Progressives Congress (APC). Addressing a press conference recently at his Ikolo Awka residence in Anambra Statethe national chairman of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Okey Nwosu, urged President Muhammadu Buhari to ‘call the anti-graft agency to order.’ QUESTION 5: WHAT IS THE STRENGTH OF THE OPPOSITION PARTIES OR PARTY IN THE STATE? Four of the respondents viewed that the strength of the opposition party is the weaknesses of the party in power, that is; identity politics over who will be the party flag bearer will weaken the party and make some key party members to decamp to PDP to strengthen it. The kogi electorates will be sympathized with PDP and the inability of the APC government to provide infrastructure to the state will give PDP upper hand in 2023. PDP is popular in Kogi east the tribe that have 52 percent of the population and hug percentage in kogi west due to percent salary which affected them majorly as result of majorly been dominant in civil service of the state. The respondents also perceived powerful former governors as strength of the Party. QUESTION: WHAT IS THE LIKELY WEAKNESSES OF THE OPPOSITION PARTIES OR PARTY The Party may not have enough money to match the incumbent party which has the state resources at its disposal. That is to say the ruling party will use state money to buy its way back to power by buying votes, bribing the institutions of the state such as KOSIEC ( Kogi state independent electoral commission) the police and other security apparatus. the party major weakness was that it wasn’t in power which means power of incumbency is likely to be used against it during election to suppress its popularity within any senatorial zones of the state and the PDP since it lost power it has not learnt how to be an opposition meaning that they are not doing enough in opposing the party in power; they are not making the people feel the impact of opposition in the state. QUESTION 5: IS THERE OPPORTUNITY FOR A THIRD FORCE OR A COALITION PARTY LIKE APC IN THE STATE? All the four respondents responded that, they will be third force if the identity politics in APC denied some key member’s tickets and the capital requirements are available. All the four respondents responded that, the third force will struggle because of the resources to market the party and the individual who mighty emerge which, required hug sum of money which might not be available. This will be the major hurdle the new force is like to face MAJOR PLAYERS QUESTION: WHO ARE THE MAJOR PLAYERS IN THE STATE? All the four respondents, responded that, the major players are much but mentioned names such as; Governor Yahaya Bello, Edward Onoja, Jamiu Abdulkreem Asuku, Former senator Dino Melaye, Smart Adeyemi, Achuba Simon, Ibrahim Idris, Musa wada, Idris Wada, party chairmen. Hon. Adeku (whisky) PDP, Dr, Philip salau former deputy governor omeza, Prince Dayo, Akanmode and Dr Williams Toying Akande. These people are called majoy players based on their electorates strength or their ability to command votes in the state. Each of the above command greats number of electorates in their constituency and are likely to shake party when they decamped to another party. CONCLUSION The political situation of kogi state is the agitation for which tribe will produce next party flag bearer in both Parties, with the hit coming strongly in All Progressive congress ( APC) between the tripod tribe of Igala, Ebira and Okun. The Agitation to be governor be the next Governor is desperately been led by the chief of staff Jamiu Asuku. The argument of the Ebira is that the Igalas has held to power for the past twenty years and the Ebira been the second populous tribe should hold for sixteen years meaning they desire another round of eight years. The okun people strongly desire for power holding unto the fact that they had never led the number position of the state since the creation of the state as one of the major tribes of the state. The Deputy Governor from the first populous tribe is also in contestation to replace his boss. Being an Igala, a deputy governor and a Christian is an advantage to him during the primary to clinch the party ticket. The strength of APC is the power of incumbency and state resources. This two major strength are likely to be used against the opposition party during election to defeat a weak opposition. The weaknesses of the party mostly rage from corruption, poor state infrastructures such as roads. Poor welfarism of civil servants of the state and intimidation of residents within and outside the party that dare to criticize the APC led government. The most striking points that will hit up the politics and weaken the party is identity politics. Is their weakness and likely to be a strength. In the opposition Camp, the party is likely to face the same issues of politics of identity between the Igala, Ebira and the Okun. From the East senatorial zone the former flag bearer Musa Wada still desire the party ticket, Dino Melaye from the Okun and west senatorial zone desire party ticket for governorship and Hon whisky recently decamped to PDP to seek also for the party ticket for the state top spot. The strength of the party will majorly be the weaknesses of the party in power. They will capitalized on the weaknesses of the party in power in areas of corruption, welfare of the civil servants, poor state infrastructure and some powerful former governors and senators of the state. Other opposition parties are likely to be influence to join the movement to bring the APC government down. Finally, the government is intolerant, any residents within the party or outside the party which criticizes the party is likely to be attacked. Everyone within the state is afraid of speaking against the APC led government of Yahaya Bello. This was seen from the interviewed conducted on the workers and respondents who pleaded unanimous. The government is strongly against public opinion and free expression in the state. REFERENCES Aisha A., Bars. H., Mahmoud l., Fatima I., and et, al, (2018), Perspectives on election and the challenges for democracy. Bayero University press. Kano. Nigeria. Bayero Journal of political science, (2014), Maiden edition, Department of political science, Kano. Mahajan. V. D, (2012), Political theory. S. Chad. New Delhi. 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